US Dollar Will Crash To N1,300 - Nigerian Economic Summit Group Predicts

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has forecasted a significant appreciation of the naira, projecting an average exchange rate of ?1,300 to the US dollar by 2025. This optimistic outlook was presented in its 2025 economic report, released in January 2025. NESG attributes this recovery to higher foreign exchange earnings driven by increased crude oil exports, revitalized manufacturing from the oil refining sub-sector, and enhanced agricultural productivity. Economic Growth and Stability Projections NESG expects Nigeria’s real GDP growth to reach 5.5% in 2025, a substantial improvement from 2024 when only four out of 20 key sectors experienced growth above 5%. The group also forecasts a sharp decline in inflation to 24.7%, signaling improved macroeconomic stability. These projections depend on the successful implementation of stabilization reforms, including effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, a more stable forex market, and increased agricultural output. Boosting Food Security and Controlling Inflation NESG emphasized that improved security in farming regions and better access to farmlands will enhance food production, reduce scarcity, and alleviate inflationary pressures. “Increased food production will help stabilize food prices, which remain a major driver of inflation in Nigeria,” NESG stated. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture is also contributing to this goal with its new initiative, ‘Operation Empty The Stores,’ designed to assist farmers in increasing food production nationwide. Naira’s 2024 Challenges and CBN’s Reforms NESG Chairman, Olaniyi Yusuf, noted the naira's 41.4% depreciation in 2024, closing the year at ?1,536.5 per US dollar. Despite this, he praised the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) efforts in narrowing the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates through forex reforms. Yusuf highlighted the need for consolidated monetary, fiscal, trade, and regulatory frameworks to sustain the economy’s transformation in 2025. Speaking virtually at the report’s unveiling, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso expressed confidence in the naira’s future competitiveness, attributing this to the success of ongoing forex reforms. Looking Ahead With NESG’s optimistic projections, increased export revenues, and agricultural reforms, Nigeria is positioned for economic growth and improved currency stability in 2025.

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